GTM市場(chǎng)調(diào)研公司和Bridge to India聯(lián)合進(jìn)行了市場(chǎng)調(diào)研，在這份名為《印度太陽(yáng)能市場(chǎng)的戰(zhàn)略、玩家與機(jī)遇》的報(bào)告中，研究者們總結(jié)到：在未來(lái)的五年內(nèi)，印度將憑借其在2011年至2016年間超過(guò)9GW的預(yù)期安裝量成為太陽(yáng)能產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)的一個(gè)重要組成部分。

研究者們認(rèn)為不斷發(fā)展的國(guó)家太陽(yáng)能任務(wù)(NSM)、國(guó)家級(jí)補(bǔ)貼和全球太陽(yáng)能企業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀均為該國(guó)太陽(yáng)能產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展至吉瓦級(jí)別起到了推動(dòng)作用。這份報(bào)告還著重關(guān)注了印度市場(chǎng)的動(dòng)態(tài)，并分析了該國(guó)太陽(yáng)能政策的發(fā)展路線圖、各邦的需求動(dòng)因以及印度國(guó)內(nèi)的生產(chǎn)與技術(shù)地位等。

“印度的太陽(yáng)能將在未來(lái)的十年內(nèi)出現(xiàn)大幅增長(zhǎng)，” Bridge to India的總經(jīng)理兼此報(bào)告的主要作者Tobias Engelmeier博士表示，“這種增長(zhǎng)將受到不斷上漲的能源需求和化石燃料價(jià)格、NSM的野心和各邦所制定的刺激政策，以及包括公共設(shè)施及太陽(yáng)能配額和太陽(yáng)能成本下降而帶來(lái)的利潤(rùn)在內(nèi)的各種可再生能源配額等因素的共同促進(jìn)。”

在2010年年底時(shí)，印度的聯(lián)網(wǎng)太陽(yáng)能設(shè)備安裝量已達(dá)到了54MW，但是，該報(bào)告也同時(shí)指出，NSM所發(fā)放的上網(wǎng)電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼和古吉拉突邦的太陽(yáng)能政策也為安裝量在2011年年底前增長(zhǎng)到365MW并在2012年超過(guò)1100MW做出了一定的保障。

盡管印度的太陽(yáng)能市場(chǎng)具有極大的發(fā)展前景及豐富的發(fā)展機(jī)遇，GTM及Bridge to India卻指出，該國(guó)確實(shí)也面臨著許多阻礙發(fā)展的挑戰(zhàn)。主要的擔(dān)憂在于專案的銀行可貼現(xiàn)性以及銀行在印度專案在國(guó)??家級(jí)和各邦級(jí)上網(wǎng)電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼政策及購(gòu)電協(xié)定的支援下進(jìn)行首輪融資時(shí)所表現(xiàn)出來(lái)的意愿不高。

“對(duì)于所有在印度進(jìn)行太陽(yáng)能開(kāi)發(fā)的企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，融資是其首要擔(dān)心的問(wèn)題。”GTM市場(chǎng)調(diào)研公司太陽(yáng)能部門經(jīng)理Shayle Kann表示，“為了緩解這種壓力，并最終實(shí)現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)潛力，我們預(yù)測(cè)該國(guó)市場(chǎng)將通過(guò)戰(zhàn)略性合作伙伴和合資企業(yè)的形式引入大量競(jìng)爭(zhēng)手段。印度市場(chǎng)將由全球太陽(yáng)能現(xiàn)有的開(kāi)發(fā)企業(yè)身上得到很多好處，同時(shí)，這些區(qū)域也將憑借擁有當(dāng)?shù)睾献骰锇殛P(guān)系這一事實(shí)來(lái)引導(dǎo)該國(guó)復(fù)雜的能源市場(chǎng)的走向。”

In the new reported conducted by GTM Research and Bridge to India, The India Solar Market: Strategy, Players and Opportunities, researchers have concluded that over the next five years India will become one of the major players in the solar industry with the installation of more than 9GW between 2011 and 2016.

Researchers cited the ever-evolving National Solar Mission (NSM), state-level incentives and global solar companies as helping to spur the country into a gigawatt-scale market. The report focuses on India's market dynamics with analysis of solar policy roadmaps, state- by-state demand drivers and domestic manufacturing and technology positioning.

“Solar in India is set to grow significantly over the next 10 years,” said Dr. Tobias Engelmeier, managing director at Bridge to India and the report's lead author. “This growth will be driven by rising power demand and fossil fuel prices, the ambition of the NSM and various state-level initiatives, as well as by renewable energy quotas, including solar energy quotas for utilities and the subsequent gains in solar cost reduction.”

By the end of 2010, India had installed 54MW of grid-connected solar, but, as the report points out, FIT allocations from NSM and Gujarat's Solar Policy have sparked a promise to grow the installed capacity to nearly 365MW by the end of 2011 and to over 1,100MW by 2012.

While the solar market in India holds the potential for growth and abounding solar opportunities, GTM and Bridge to India noted that the country does face certain challenges that could possibly inhibit the forecasted growth. The main concern lies in project bankability and financing with banks showing reluctance to finance the first wave of Indian project with national- or state-level feed-in tariffs or power purchase agreements.

“Financing is the number one concern for anyone developing solar in India,” said Shayle Kann, managing director of solar at GTM Research. “To ease that pressure and eventually realize the market's potential, we expect to see the competitive landscape evolve dramatically via strategic partnerships and joint ventures; India will benefit from the development expertise of global solar incumbents and these incumbents in turn will benefit from having a local partner to navigate the country's complex energy market.”