中國石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)油價網(wǎng)1月12日消息稱，挪威研究機構(gòu)Rystad Energy的研究顯示，今年在低碳項目上的支出將增加600億美元，比2022年高出10%，主要是風(fēng)力開發(fā)，但氫和碳捕獲、利用和存儲(CCUS)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的資金大幅增加?？傊С龅脑鲩L比近年來有所放緩——平均每年增長20%——因為成本意識強的開發(fā)商在經(jīng)歷了兩年的房價飆升后收緊了錢袋。

2022年，綠色行業(yè)的投資激增21%，首次超過相關(guān)的石油和天然氣支出，但受通脹影響的開發(fā)商似乎將在今年遏制支出增長。然而，隨著通脹壓力減弱，我們預(yù)計支出將反彈。

地?zé)帷⑻疾东@、利用和儲存(CCUS)、氫、水電、海上和陸上風(fēng)能、核能和太陽能行業(yè)的投資將在2023年達到6200億美元，高于去年的約5600億美元。我們計算的服務(wù)領(lǐng)域包括項目設(shè)備和材料、工程和施工、油井、運營和維護、物流和船舶。

太陽能和陸上風(fēng)能將貢獻最大。今年太陽能投資支出總額將達到2500億美元，比2022年僅增長6%。然而，由于太陽能光伏電池的主要成本驅(qū)動因素多晶硅的成本下降，產(chǎn)能增長將比美元投資所顯示的更為可觀。盡管投資價值增長相對不明顯，但裝機容量預(yù)計將增長約25%，達到1250吉瓦。

各行各業(yè)的支出增長差異很大。預(yù)計氫能和CCUS的年增長率最高，分別增長149%和136%。到2023年，氫能總支出將接近78億美元，而CCUS投資總額將約為74億美元。

相比之下，水電市場預(yù)計將在2022年萎縮，而核電投資預(yù)計將保持相對平穩(wěn)。陸上風(fēng)電投資預(yù)計將增長12%，達到約2300億美元，而海上風(fēng)電支出預(yù)計將增長20%至480億美元。地?zé)岱矫娴闹С鲱A(yù)計將大幅增長(約45%)，盡管起點相對較低。

曹海斌 摘譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Investment In Low-Carbon Energy To Hit $620 Billion This Year

Spending on low-carbon projects will increase by $60 billion this year, 10% higher than 2022, led by wind developments but helped by a significant rise in funding for hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) infrastructure, Rystad Energy research shows. The growth in total spending is a slowdown from recent years – which averaged 20% annual increases – as cost-conscious developers tighten their purse strings after two years of soaring prices.

Investments in green sectors surged 21% in 2022 to overtake related oil and gas spending for the first time, but inflation-spooked developers seem set to rein in spending growth this year. However, as inflationary pressure weakens, we expect spending to rebound.

Investments in the geothermal, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), hydrogen, hydropower, offshore and onshore wind, nuclear and solar industries are set to hit $620 billion in 2023, up from about $560 billion last year. Service segments included in our calculations include project equipment and materials, engineering and construction, wells, operations and maintenance, and logistics and vessels.

Solar and onshore wind will contribute the most by a sizable margin. Spending on solar investments will total $250 billion this year, rising only 6% over 2022. However, thanks to the falling cost of polysilicon, the primary cost driver of solar PV cells, capacity growth will be more substantial than dollar investments suggest. Despite a relatively insignificant rise in investment value, installed capacity is expected to swell by roughly 25% to 1,250 gigawatts (GW).

Spending growth will vary widely across industries. Hydrogen and CCUS are expected to see the most significant annual increase, growing 149% and 136%, respectively. Total hydrogen spending will approach $7.8 billion in 2023, while CCUS investments will total about $7.4 billion.

In contrast, the hydropower market is expected to shrink over 2022, while nuclear investments are forecast to stay relatively flat. onshore wind investments are projected to increase by 12% to about $230 billion, while offshore wind spending is expected to jump 20% to $48 billion. Expenditure in geothermal is expected to jump significantly – about 45% – albeit from a relatively low starting position.